Friday Briefing: Equity investors are running scared

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Eve Maddock-Jones

Editor, Investment Week

Over the summer, the FTSE 100, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Japan’s main equity indices enjoyed record highs.

 

Usually, you would think that this was great news for investors, a sign that, despite all the geopolitical chaos and monetary and fiscal murkiness going on, companies are still finding strong growth and marching onwards.

But, instead, investors are pouring out of funds, as the background noise ratchets up ever higher.

 

Hargreaves Lansdown's latest Investor Confidence Index found that participant's bullishness took another major knock in September across all global markets, with the biggest hit coming in North America.

 

This flight from the US - and therefore the leading equity market in terms of global index inclusion – was confirmed by fellow platform AJ Bell.

 

It found that, since ‘Liberation Day’, retail investors have eased up on buying US-focused equity funds at a notable rate.

 

According to AJ Bell, pre-US election, 13% of the most popular funds bought on its platform were US-focused – almost double the UK’s rate at 7% (71% were global, for context).

 

Skip ahead to the months between the election and US President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’, the numbers stayed about the same.

 

However, since the tariff fiasco began, the US only made up 8% of the split.

 

It was even overtaken by the UK, which went up to 9%.

 

In further evidence of growing fears, Calastone’s Fund Flow Index (FFI) found investors withdrew £1.31bn from equity funds in August, the worst bout of outflows since the summer of 2022, which were at the time driven by central banks raising rates to squeeze inflation, the oil shock from Russia's Ukraine invasion and fears of a recession.

 

But even if you hadn’t wanted to get as deep into the data as this, the fact that the gold price has continued to go up and Jupiter’s Gold and Silver fund is among the most bought by HL clients are tell-tale signs that investors are getting shaky.

 

There are a plethora of ‘noisy’ reasons why this is happening. Throw a dart at any market, developed or EM, and there is some sort of event going on, be it in its politics, the economy or the companies themselves.

 

Edward Glyn, head of global markets at Calastone, said the FFI’s results show investors are preparing, or rather “fearing”, that a correction is due any day now.

 

“Whether their caution is justified remains to be seen,” he said.

 

Whatever the reasons, it is causing a bit of a headache for fund managers, with one EM lead telling me that, despite seeing the returns, they are not seeing the inflows.

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